发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警的效果

Effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A (H1N1) outbreak

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感暴发早期预警效果。方法 收集2007年1月-2009年12月本地区发热呼吸道症状监测数据进行分析,对2009年甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情数据进行拟合判断预警效果。结果 2009年甲型H1N1病例数在第35周后明显增加,在42周到达高峰,随即开始下降,其走势与ILI%(流感样病例占同期门急诊就诊总人数百分比)趋势相同;控制图法预警显示:ILI%在21~29周,35~43周和46周出现预警信息,基本与2009年甲型H1N1流行趋势一致;移动平均数回归法预警显示,2009年25~26周,29周,36~42周ILI%超过平均线,其中第42周超过了平均线+2.0标准差预警线,与2009年甲型H1N1第42周达到高峰的流行趋势吻合。结论 发热呼吸道症状监测预警能较好的反映甲型H1N1流感暴发疫情,其中应用移动平均回归法预警效果较控制图法好。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIV To investigate the effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A (H1N1) outbreak. METHODS The fever respiratory symptoms monitoring data from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2009 were collected and analyzed, and the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) outbreak epidemic data were fitted to determine the effect of early warning. RESULTS The case of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) increased significantly in the 35th weeks, reached a peak in the 42nd week, then began to decline, and was the same as the trend of ILI% (percentage of influenza like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits at the same time). Control chart method warning indicated, ILI% appeared warning information in the 21st -29th week, 35th -43rd week and 46 week, which was consistent with the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) trends. Moving average regression early warning indicated, ILI% was over the average line in 25th -26th week, 29th week, and 36th week -42nd week in 2009, and was over the average line +2.0 standard deviation warning line in 42nd week, which was matched the epidemic trend of 2009 influenza A (H1N1). CONCLUSION Fever respiratory symptoms monitoring warning can preferably reflect the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1),and the early warning effect of moving average regression is better than that of control chart method.

     

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