Abstract:
OBJECTIV To investigate the effect of fever respiratory tract symptoms monitoring in the early warning of influenza A (H1N1) outbreak.
METHODS The fever respiratory symptoms monitoring data from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2009 were collected and analyzed, and the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) outbreak epidemic data were fitted to determine the effect of early warning.
RESULTS The case of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) increased significantly in the 35th weeks, reached a peak in the 42nd week, then began to decline, and was the same as the trend of ILI% (percentage of influenza like cases to the total number of outpatient and emergency visits at the same time). Control chart method warning indicated, ILI% appeared warning information in the 21st -29th week, 35th -43rd week and 46 week, which was consistent with the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) trends. Moving average regression early warning indicated, ILI% was over the average line in 25th -26th week, 29th week, and 36th week -42nd week in 2009, and was over the average line +2.0 standard deviation warning line in 42nd week, which was matched the epidemic trend of 2009 influenza A (H1N1).
CONCLUSION Fever respiratory symptoms monitoring warning can preferably reflect the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1),and the early warning effect of moving average regression is better than that of control chart method.