难治性腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎发生的影响因素与风险评分模型研究

Analysis of influencing factors and establishment of risk scoring model for refractory peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis

  • 摘要: 目的 分析难治性腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎发生的影响因素,构建风险评分模型,为临床治疗和预防提供参考依据。方法 收集南京医科大学附属南京医院2010年4月-2019年2月血液净化中心临床诊断为腹膜透析相关性腹膜炎(Peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis,PDAP)患者129例为研究对象,根据临床病情进展分为难治性PDAP 30例、非难治性PDAP 99例,回顾性收集两组患者临床基线资料,归纳难治性PDAP发生的影响因素,建立风险评分模型。结果 129例PDAP患者,发生难治性PDAP 30例,发生率为23.26%。腹膜透析透出液培养分离病原菌30株,革兰阳性菌13例占43.33%,革兰阴性菌10例占33.33%,真菌7例占23.33%。革兰阴性菌感染、存在并发症以及CRP是难治性PDAP发生的影响因素(P<0.05)。构建风险评分模型:革兰阴性菌感染(2分)、存在并发症(2分),CRP值1.34~22.6 mg/L、23.6~58.8 mg/L、62.4~123.5 mg/L、124~358 mg/L依次为0、1、2、3分,风险评分模型预测难治性PDAP的ROC曲线下面积为0.778(95%CI:0.696~0.846,P<0.05),最佳截断值为4分,灵敏度、特异度分别为60.00%、91.92%,约登指数为0.519。结论 革兰阴性菌感染、存在并发症、CRP值较高是难治性PDAP发生的影响因素,构建的风险评分模型预测难治性PDAP准确度较好,临床应用价值较高。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the influencing factors of refractory peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis, establish the risk scoring model and provide reference for clinical treatment and prevention.METHODS A total of 129 patients with peritoneal dialysis-associated peritonitis(PDAP) were collected from the blood purification center in Nanjing First Hospital from Apr. 2010 to Feb. 2019. According to the progress of the disease, 30 patients were classified as refractory PDAP and 99 patients as non-refractory PDAP. The clinical baseline data of the two groups were retrospectively collected, and the suspected influencing factors of refractory PDAP were statistically analyzed, and a risk scoring model was established.RESULTS In the 129 patients with PDAP, 30 cases of refractory PDAP occurred, and the incidence rate was 23.26%. 30 strains of pathogens were cultured from the peritoneal dialysis effusion, including 13 strains of Gram-positive bacteria(43.33%), 10 strains of Gram-negative bacteria(33.33%), and 7 strains of fungi(23.33%). Multivariate analysis showed that Gram-negative bacterial infection, complications and CRP levels were independent influencing factors for refractory PDAP(P<0.05). Risk scoring model establishment: Gram-negative bacterial infection(2 points), complications(2 points), CRP values of 1.34 to 22.6 mg/L, 23.6 to 58.8 mg/L, 62.4 to 123.5 mg/L, 124 to 358 mg/L were set as 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The risk scoring model predicted that the area under the ROC curve of refractory PDAP was 0.778(95% CI: 0.696 to 0.846, P<0.001), and the optimal cutoff value was 4 points. The sensitivity and specificity were 60.00% and 91.92%, respectively, and the Yoden index was 0.519.CONCLUSION Gram-negative bacterial infection, complications, and high CRP values are independent influential factors for refractory PDAP. The constructed risk scoring model predicts refractory PDAP with high accuracy, and has a high value in clinical application.

     

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