ARIMA模型在手术部位感染发生率预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA model in prediction of incidence of surgical site infection

    摘要
  • 摘要: 目的 探讨ARIMA模型在手术部位感染发生率预测中的应用,为手术部位感染的防控工作提供科学依据。方法 运用SPSS 20.0对仙桃市第一人民医院2015年1月-2017年12月手术部位感染逐月发生率数据建立ARIMA模型,利用2018年1-6月实际数据验证,并预测2018年7-12月手术部位感染发生率。结果 采用2015年1月-2018年6月手术部位感染发生率数据建立最优模型为ARIMA（0,1,0）×（1,1,0）12,R2=0.594,MAPE=15.695%。模型的拟合值和实际值较为吻合,实际值均在拟合值95%可信区间内。预测2018年7-12月手术部位感染发生率分别为0.95%、1.28%、1.37%、0.81%、0.88%、0.66%。结论 ARIMA模型能够较好的拟合和预测医院手术部位感染发生率,可为手术部位感染的防控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the application of ARIMA model in prediction of incidence of surgical site infection so as to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of surgical site infection. METHODS By means of SPSS 20.0, the ARIMA model was established for the month-by-month incidence of surgical site infection in Xiantao First People′s Hospital from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017, the data of the first half of 2018 were used to verify the predicted results, and the incidence of surgical site infection in the second half of 2018 was predicted. RESULTS The optimal model that was established based on the data of incidence of surgical site infection from Jan 2015 to Jun 2018 was the model of ARIMA（0,1,0）×（1,1,0）12,R2=0.594,MAPE=15.695%.The fitted value of the model tended to be identical with the actual value, all the actual values were within the 95% confidence interval of the fitted value.The predicted incidence rates of surgical site infection were 0.95%, 1.28%, 1.37%, 0.81%, 0.88% and 0.66%, respectively. CONCLUSION The ARIMA model can well fit and predict the incidence of surgical site infection in hospitals, which can provide scientific basis for prevention and control of surgical site infection.

     

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