Abstract:
                                      OBJECTIVE To investigate the incidence of multidrug-resistant organism(MDRO) infection in Henan Provincial People′s Hospital from 2013 to 2017, observe the changing trends and predict the incidence of MDRO infection in 2018. 
METHODS By means of time-series analysis, the models were established for the incidence of MDRO infection in Henan Provincial People′s Hospital, the optimal model was chosen to predict the incidence of MDRO infection in 2018, the prediction result was compared with the result of actual monitoring so as to verify the predictive effect. 
RESULTS The simple seasonal model was automatically screened by statistical package modeler, the predicted value of incidence of MDRO infection of 2018 is basically consistent with the trend of actual value, and the mean deviation between the predicted value and the actual value was 14.16%. 
CONCLUSION The incidence of MDRO infection shows certain seasonal and periodic characteristics, the change rules of which can be predicted by the simple seasonal model for time-series analysis so as to provide scientific basis for taking prevention measures in early stage.