基于多因素脓毒症早期预警诊断模型的构建及验证

Establishment and validation of a multi-factor early warning diagnosis model for sepsis

  • 摘要: 目的 通过比较脓毒症患者和普通感染患者临床资料,构建脓毒症的多因素联合早期预警诊断模型。方法 将2010年6月-2015年6月在解放军总医院住院的215例感染患者根据疾病转归分为脓毒症组(86例),非脓毒症感染组(对照组,129例)。采集患者的临床资料,筛选出脓毒症的危险因素,并构建脓毒症早期预警诊断模型。绘制预警诊断模型的受试者工作曲线(ROC),计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC)、灵敏度、特异度,并通过临床病例验证,评价早期预警诊断模型的预警诊断效果。结果 两组病例经多因素分析后筛选出的脓毒症危险因素有皮肤瘀点(OR=0.023,P=0.013)、血小板(OR=0.900,P<0.001)、降钙素原(OR=0.717,P=0.024)、肌酐(OR=1.076,P=0.001)和国际标准化比值(OR=9.842,P=0.009)。将危险因素组合后构建的早期预警诊断模型诊断脓毒症时的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.972,敏感度和特异度分别为98.8%、74.8%。30例感染患者初步验证结果显示该模型灵敏度72.7%,特异度89.5%,阳性预测值80.0%,阴性预测值85.0%,诊断符合率83.3%。结论 皮肤瘀点、血小板计数、降钙素原、肌酐和国际标准化比值是感染患者发生脓毒症的危险因素,由这些危险因素构建的模型对脓毒症早期预警诊断有较好的效果,有助于临床早期快速鉴别感染和脓毒症患者。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To establish a multi-factor early warning diagnosis model for sepsis by comparing the clinical data between patients with sepsis and common infection. METHODS A total of 215 patients admitted to the PLA General Hospital from Jun. 2010 to Jun. 2015 were divided into the sepsis group(86 cases) and non-sepsis infection group(also as the control group, 129 cases) according to their disease outcomes. The clinical data of patients were collected and analyzed to find the risk factors of sepsis, and the early warning and diagnosis model of sepsis was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) of the early warning diagnosis model was drawn, and the area under the ROC curve(AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated in order to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the early warning diagnosis model. RESULTS The risk factors of sepsis were skin petechiae(OR=0.023,P=0.013), platelet(OR=0.900,P<0.001), procalcitonin(OR=0.717,P=0.024), creatinine(OR=1.076,P=0.001) and international standard ratio(OR=9.842,P=0.009). The area under the ROC curve(AUC) was 0.972, and the sensitivity and specificity were 98.8% and 74.8%, respectively. Preliminary verification test of 30 infected patients showed that the sensitivity of the model was 72.7%, the specificity was 89.5%, the positive predictive value was 80.0%, the negative predictive value was 85.0%, and the diagnostic coincidence rate was 83.3%. CONCLUSION Skin petechiae, platelet count, procalcitonin, creatinine and international standardized ratio are the risk factors of sepsis in patients with infection. The model based on these risk factors has a good performance on early warning and diagnosis of sepsis, which can be used for the early clinical identification of patients with infection and sepsis.

     

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