结直肠癌术后患者切口感染危险因素及其预测模型的构建

Risk factors for postoperative incision infection in colorectal cancer patients and establishment of prediction model

  • 摘要: 目的 构建结直肠癌术后患者切口感染的预测模型,为其临床预防提供依据。方法 选取2020年3月-2022年10月承德医学院附属医院收治的结直肠癌术后患者398例纳入研究,根据患者切口感染情况分为切口感染组34例和无切口感染组364例,分析结直肠癌术后患者切口感染病原菌分布,归纳结直肠癌术后切口感染的危险因素并建立预测模型,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析模型的预测价值。结果 398例结直肠癌术后患者并发切口感染34例,切口感染率为8.54%,共分离病原菌41株,其中革兰阴性菌31株,占比75.61%。多因素Logistic分析结果显示,体质量指数(BMI)≥24 kg/m2、手术时间≥3 h、低蛋白血症为结直肠癌术后切口感染的危险因素(P<0.05)。将上述因素纳入危险因素模型:Logit(P)=-8.452+0.656×BMI≥24 kg/m2+0.823×手术时间≥3 h+0.683×低蛋白血症,ROC曲线结果显示,当Logit(P)>6.45时,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.905,诊断敏感度为87.72%、特异度为85.62%。结论 结直肠癌术后患者切口感染发生率较高,病原菌以革兰阴性菌为主,多种因素可促进其发生,构建的模型对结直肠癌术后切口感染具有良好的预测价值。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To establish the prediction model for postoperative incision infection in the patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS Totally 398 patients with colorectal cancer who were treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical College from Mar 2020 to Oct 2022 were enrolled in the study and were divided into the infection group with 34 cases and the no incision infection group with 364 cases according to the status of incision infection. The distribution of pathogens isolated to the colorectal cancer patients with postoperative incision infection was observed. The risk factors for the postoperative incision infection were concluded, the prediction model was established, and the predictive value of the prediction model was analyzed by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS Of the 398 patients with colorectal cancer, 34 were complicated with postoperative incision infection, with the infection rate 8.54%. Totally 41 strains of pathogens were isolated, 31 (75.61%) of which were gram-negative bacteria. The result of multivariate logistic analysis showed that body mass index (BMI) no less than 24 kg/m2, operation duration no less than 3 hours and hypoproteinemia were the risk factors for the postoperative incision infection in the patients with colorectal cancer(P<0.05).The above indexes were brought into the risk factor model: Logit(P)=-8.452+0.656×BMI≥24 kg/m2+0.823×operation duration ≥3 h+0.683×hypoproteinemia . ROC curve analysis showed that when Logit(P) was more than 6.45, the area under curve (AUC) was 0.905, with the sensitivity 87.72%, the specificity 85.62%. CONCLUSION The incidence of postoperative incision infection is high among the patients with colorectal cancer. The gram-negative bacteria are dominant among the pathogens, there are a variety of factors for the infection. The prediction model has high value in prediction of the postoperative incision infection in the patients with colorectal cancer.

     

/

返回文章
返回