肺结核患者耐药特征与危险因素及其预测模型构建

Drug resistance characteristics and risk factors of pulmonary tuberculosis in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

  • 摘要: 目的 分析肺结核患者耐药特征、耐药基因及其危险因素,构建肺结核患者危险因素的预测模型。方法 回顾性选取2019年1月-2022年12月赣州市第五人民医院收治的452例肺结核患者为研究对象,根据患者对抗结核药物的反应情况,分为耐药组(n=108)和敏感组(n=344)。分析肺结核患者的耐药特征、基线资料、耐药基因情况,用多因素Logistic回归分析法分析肺结核耐药发生的高危因素,并建立高危因素模型。绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析高危因素模型对肺结核耐药发生的预测价值。结果 452例肺结核患者中,有108例发生耐药,耐药率为23.89%,其中单耐药、多耐药、耐多药、广泛耐药率分别为7.96%、5.09%、7.52%、3.32%; 合并糖尿病、双肺受累肺野数为6个及利福平耐药相关rpoB基因、异烟肼耐药相关katG/inhA基因突变是肺结核耐药发生的危险因素(P<0.05); 构建的危险因素模型是Logit(P)=-10.384+合并糖尿病×0.588+双肺受累肺野数为6个×0.573+rpoB基因突变×0.533+katG/inhA基因突变×0.651,且该Logit(P)的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.799,敏感度为76.85%,特异度为70.06%。结论 肺结核患者耐药率较高,合并糖尿病、肺受累肺野数为6个及rpoB、katG/inhA基因突变是肺结核耐药发生的危险因素,据此构建的高危因素模型对肺结核耐药发生具有较好的预测价值,临床上或可为医生对耐药肺结核患者设计和实施更有效的治疗方案提供参考。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze drug resistance characteristics, drug resistance genes and high risk factors in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, and to construct a prediction model of risk factors in pulmonary tuberculosis patients. METHODS The clinical data of 452 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis admitted to the Fifth People's Hospital of Ganzhou City from Jan 2019 to Dec 2022 were retrospectively collected as research subjects. According to the response of patients to anti-tuberculosis drugs, they were divided into the drug-resistant group (n=108) and the drug-sensitive group (n=344). Drug resistance characteristics, baseline data and tuberculosis resistance gene mutations in pulmonary tuberculosis patients were analyze. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the high risk factors of drug resistance of pulmonary tuberculosis, and the high risk factor model was established. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the predictive value of the high-risk factor model for the occurrence of drug resistance in pulmonary tuberculosis. RESULTS A total of the 452 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, 108 were drug-resistant, with the resistance rate of 23.89%, which included the rates of single drug resistance, non-single drug resistance, multi-drug resistance and extensive drug resistance were 7.96%, 5.09%, 7.52% and 3.32%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that high risk factors for tuberculosis resistance were combined with diabetes mellitus, six lung fields of pulmonary involvement, gene mutation of rifampicin-resistant rpoB and isoniazid resistant-related katG/inhA (P<0.05). The high-risk factor model was established as follows: Logit (P)=-10.384+ combined with diabetes mellitus×0.588+ 6 lung fields of pulmonary involvement ×0.573+ rpoB gene mutation ×0.533+ katG/inhA gene mutation ×0.651, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of this Logit (P) was 0.799, with sensitivity of 76.85% and specificity of 70.06%, respectively. CONCLUSION Drug resistance rate of pulmonary tuberculosis is high, and combined with diabetes mellitus, six lung fields of pulmonary involvement, and mutation of rpoB and katG/inhA gene are high risk factors for the occurrence of drug resistance. High risk factor model built on this has good diagnostic value for drug resistance of pulmonary tuberculosis. Clinically, this study may help doctors be able to design and implement more effective treatments for patients with drug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis.

     

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