多重耐药菌感染患者医院感染风险评估量表构建

Establishment of risk assessment scale of nosocomial infection for patients with multidrug-resistant organisms infections

  • 摘要: 目的 构建评价多重耐药菌(MDRO)感染患者医院感染风险评估量表,为防控住院患者MDRO感染提供依据。方法 选取2022年1月-12月在武汉大学人民医院住院期间检出的MDRO患者1 327例为研究对象,其中MDRO医院感染患者375例为病例组,MDRO非医院感染患者952例为对照组。用Logistic回归构建量表条目,根据优势比(OR)确定权重,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线判断量表的准确性并确定诊断阈值,四分位法划定风险等级;并前瞻性地对2023年一季度MDRO患者(验证组)感染结局进行预测,并比较不同风险等级患者真实感染率的差异。结果 纳入11个指标进行单因素分析,进入模型的变量有6个,模型符合程度Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.686,正确判别类型为77.3%。根据赋分标准确定各个条目的权重,阴性时设为0分,初构MDRO医院感染风险评分量表,量表的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.8(95%CI=0.774~0.826,P<0.001),诊断阈值17分,0~16分无风险;17~22分低风险;23~27分中风险;28分及以上高风险。将验证组风险得分按照风险等级划分,随着风险等级提高,感染发生率呈增长趋势,且各风险等级组感染发生率存在统计学差异(P<0.001)。结论 MDRO感染风险评估量表简单易行,准确性及真实性较高,可用于高风险患者筛查。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To establish the risk assessment scale of nosocomial infection for the patients with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) infections so as to provide basis for prevention and control of MDROs infections in hospitalized patients. METHODS A total of 1 327 patients who were hospitalized in the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and were detected with MDROs from Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 were recruited as the research subjects, 375 of whom had MDRO nosocomial infection and were assigned as the case group, and 952 who had non-MDRO nosocomial infection were assigned as the control group. The scale items were established by logistic regression, the weight was determined based on odds ratio (OR), the accuracy of the scale was judged by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the diagnostic threshold was determined, and the risk level was assigned by quartile method. The outcomes of the patients with MDRO infection (the validation group) were prospectively predicted in the first quarter of 2023, and the real infection rate was compared among the patients with different grades of risk. RESULTS Totally 11 indexes were included in the univariate analysis, 6 variables were brought into the model; Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the coincidence degree of the model was P=0.686, the accurate differentiation of types was 77.3%. The weights of the items were determined based on assignment standards, it was 0 point for negative. The risk scoring scale for MDRO nosocomial infection was initially established; the area under ROC curve (AUC) of the scale was 0.8(95%CI=0.774-0.826,P<0.001), the diagnostic threshold was 17 points, 0-16 points as no risk, 17-22 points as low risk, 23-27 points as medium risk, no less than 28 points as high risk. The risk scores of the validation group were grades according to the grade of risk, the incidence rate of infection showed upward trend with the rise of risk grade, and there was significant difference in the incidence rate of infection among the risk grade groups(P<0.001). CONCLUSION The risk assessment scale for MDRO infection is simple, accurate and true, and it can be used for screening of the high-risk patients.

     

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