终末期肾脏病血液透析患者抗菌药物相关脑病的临床特征及其预测模型构建

Clinical characteristics and prediction model construction of antibiotic-associated encephalopathy in patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing hemodialysis a predictive model

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨终末期肾脏病血液透析患者抗菌药物相关脑病(AAE)发生的影响因素, 并构建列线图预测模型。
    方法 收集2021年1月-2024年2月吉林大学中日联谊医院收治的143例终末期肾脏病患者资料, 所有患者接受血液透析治疗并使用抗菌药物抗感染, 根据抗菌药物使用过程中是否发生AAE分为发生组(n=31)和未发生组(n=112), 重点分析患者AAE发生可能的影响因素, 并基于影响因素构建列线图预测模型。
    结果 初步比较发生组与未发生组的资料后, 构建logistic回归模型, 结果显示, 年龄、是否使用β-内酰胺类抗菌药物, 白蛋白(Alb)、血磷水平均是终末期肾脏病血液透析患者AAE发生的影响因素(P<0.05)。基于影响因素, 构建终末期肾脏病血液透析患者AAE发生风险列线图风险预测模型, 模型的校正曲线趋近于理想曲线, 模型预测AAE发生的曲线下面积为0.927, 预测价值高。绘制决策曲线发现, 阈值在0.00~1.00范围内, 模型预测AAE发生的净受益率始终>0, 最大净受益率为0.216。
    结论 基于终末期肾脏病血液透析患者AAE发生可能的影响因素(年龄、使用β-内酰胺类抗菌药物、Alb、血磷水平)构建AAE风险预测模型, 能将风险可视化, 提高早期风险筛查和预测效能。

     

    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE To explore the influencing factors for antibiotic associated encephalopathy (AAE) in end-stage renal disease undergoing hemodialysis and construct a nomogram-based predictive model.
    METHODS Data were collected from 143 patients with end-stage renal disease admitted to the Third Bethune Hospital of Jilin University from Jan. 2021 to Feb. 2024, all of whom received hemodialysis and antibiotics. According to AAE occurrence during the use of antibiotics, patients were divided into the occurrence group (n=31) and non-occurrence group (n=112). The possible influencing factors for AAE were analyzed for the construction of a nomogram-based predictive model.
    RESULTS The initial comparison between the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group showed that age, use of β-lactam antibiotics, albumin (Alb), and blood phosphorus levels were the influencing factors for AAE occurrence (P < 0.05); based on which, a nomogram-based predictive model was constructed. The calibration curve of the model approached the ideal one, of which the area under the curve was 0.927. Within the threshold ranged 0.00 to 1.00, the net benefit rate for predicting the occurrence of AAE were always greater than 0, with a maximum 0.216.
    CONCLUSION An AAE risk prediction model is constructed based on the influencing factors (age, use of β-lactam antibiotics, Alb and blood phosphorus levels), which can visualize the risks and improve early screening and prediction.

     

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