无锡某三甲医院2021-2024年念珠菌检出趋势

Isolation trend of Candida in a three-A hospital in Wuxi between 2021 and 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨无锡市江南大学附属医院南、北两院区2021-2024年念珠菌分布并预测检出趋势。
    方法 选取2021-2024年江南大学附属医院南院区和北院区共27 056例常见念珠菌检出患者, 分析其菌种分布及LSTM神经网络模型检出趋势预测。
    结果 在27 056例患者中, 男性1 1061例, 女性15 995例, 年龄1~101岁, 中位年龄为68岁。近4年, 医院检出率前5位念珠菌依次为白色念珠菌、光滑念珠菌、热带念珠菌、近平滑念珠菌和克柔念珠菌。检出白色念珠菌和光滑念珠菌的患者, 在性别、年龄、标本来源及相关疾病方面的感染特征方面差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。2021-2024年, 检出病例在2022年出现下降后有所回升(P < 0.001)。检出患者中, 70岁及以上的患者占比最高。具体疾病分布中, 前三位是阴道炎患者4 176例(15.43%)、肺炎患者1 842例(6.81%)、肿瘤患者1 279例(4.73%)。其中, 阴道炎患者主要检出白色念珠菌, 肺炎患者则以白色念珠菌和光滑念珠菌为主。LSTM模型对训练集拟合良好, 均方根差(RMSE)为145.03, 平均绝对误差(MAE)为131.19。模型预测显示, 2025年1-5月医院检出念珠菌患者数量将维持在较低水平, 基本符合实际临床观察(RMSE=94.71, MAE=84.00)。
    结论 医院念珠菌的常见疾病包括阴道炎、细菌性肺炎和肿瘤, 其中白色念珠菌和光滑念珠菌是主要的菌种, 且检出情况较为严重。LSTM模型在念珠菌检出趋势的短期预测与动态分析中表现良好。

     

    Abstract:
    OBJECTIVE To investigate the distribution of Candida and predict the detection trend in the southern and northern campuses of Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, between 2021 and 2024.
    METHODS A total of 27 056 patients with common Candida infections from the southern and northern campuses of Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University between 2021 and 2024 were selected to analyze the distribution of Candida species and predict the detection trend.
    RESULTS Among the 27 056 patients, there were 11 061 males and 15 995 females, aged from 1 to 101 years, with a median age of 68 years.Over the past four years, the top five most commonly detected Candida species in the hospital were Candida albicans, Candida glabrata, Candida tropicalis, Candida parapsilosis and Candida krusei.Statistically significant differences were found in infection characteristics among patients with C.albicans and C.glabrata in terms of gender, age, specimen source and related diseases (P < 0.05).From 2021 to 2024, the number of detected cases declined in 2022 and then rebounded (P < 0.001).Among the detected patients, those aged 70 and above accounted for the highest proportion.Regarding the distribution of specific diseases, the top three were vaginitis (4 176 cases, 15.43%), bacterial pneumonia (1 842 cases, 6.81%) and cancer (1 279 cases, 4.73%).Patients with vaginitis were mainly infected with C.albicans, while patients with bacterial pneumonia were predominantly infected with C.albicans and C.glabrata. The LSTM model showed a good fit to the training set, with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 145.03 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 131.19.Model predictions indicated that the number of patients with Candida infections in the hospital would remain low from Jan.to May 2025, which was basically consistent with actual clinical observations (RMSE=94.71, MAE=84.00).
    CONCLUSIONS The common diseases associated with Candida infections in the hospital include vaginitis, bacterial pneumonia and cancer.C.albicans and C.glabrata are the main pathogenic species, and the infection situation is relatively severe.The LSTM model performs well in short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of Candida detection trends.

     

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