Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To screen out the predictive factors for concurrent infectious pneumonia in the neonates with asphyxia based on clinical data of neonatal delivery and peripheral blood test indicators and establish the nomogram prediction model.
METHODS A total of 334 neonates who had asphyxia after being given birth in Ganzhou Maternal and Child Health Hospital from Mar. 2022 to Oct. 2023 were retrospectively enrolled in the study and were divided into the pneumonia group with 84 cases and the no pneumonia group with 250 cases according to the status of concurrent infectious pneumonia. The peripheral blood test indicators and clinical data of puerpera were collected from the neonates 24 hours after the birth. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed for the predictive factors for the infectious pneumonia in the neonates with asphyxia, the nomogram prediction model was established, and the predictive efficiency of the model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves.
RESULTS The predictive factors for the concurrent infectious pneumonia in the neonates with asphyxia included the peripheral blood interleukin-6 (IL-6), prealbumin (PA), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), white blood cell (WBC) counts, platelets to lymphocytes ratio (PLR), gestational age at birth, birth weight, and assisted endotracheal intubation(
P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram prediction model was 0.900(95%
CI:0.863 to 0.938), with the cutoff value 0.219, the sensitivity 0.881, the specificity 0.796; the model had incredible discriminating capability; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the calibration curves was 0.020, they partially overlapped with the ideal 45° line, indicating minimal systematic error.
CONCLUSIONS The peripheral blood test indicators and clinical factors such as gestational age at birth and endotracheal intubation can be used for prediction of the concurrent infectious pneumonia in the neonates with asphyxia. The risk prediction model that is established based on the clinical factors has high predictive efficiency, which may facilitate the clinical screening of the neonates at high risk of concurrent infectious pneumonia so as to take interventional measures in a timely manner.