基于九种机器学习算法构建肛周脓肿多重耐药菌感染风险预测模型

Construction of risk prediction model for multidrug-resistant organisms infectionsin perianal abscess patients based on nine types of machine learning algorithms

  • 摘要: 目的 分析肛周脓肿患者多重耐药菌感染的危险因素并构建机器学习预测模型,为临床个体化治疗提供依据。方法 收集2022年1月1日-2023年6月30日于南京市中医院行手术治疗的540例肛周脓肿患者临床资料,按照7∶3比例随机分为训练集和测试集,采用Lasso算法筛选特征变量,采用SMOTE算法纠正类别不平衡问题,并构建九种机器预测模型,通过曲线下面积(AUC)、灵敏度、特异性、精确度、F-1分数、校准曲线和决策曲线(DCA)评估预测模型性能, 使用沙普利加性解释(SHAP)来解释最佳模型的输出。结果 540例肛周脓肿患者中,有109例患者为多重耐药菌感染。糖尿病病史、肛周脓肿范围、甘油三酯以及既往肛周脓肿病史是肛周脓肿多重耐药菌感染的四个最重要的预测指标。相较于其他模型,支持向量机(SVM)模型表现最佳(AUC=0.772,95%CI:0.675~0.868),其预测概率校准良好,且临床决策曲线显示具有较高的净获益。SHAP分析进一步揭示脓肿范围及糖尿病病史对模型预测的影响最大。结论 构建了SVM模型并用SHAP方法进行解释,可为临床识别存在多重耐药感染的肛周脓肿患者及优化抗菌药物使用提供量化工具。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk factors for multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) infections in the perianal abscess patients and construct the machine learning prediction model so s to provide bases for clinical individualized treatment. METHODS The clinical data were collected from 540 patients with perianal abscess who received surgical procedures in Nanjing Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital from Jan. 1, 2022 to Jun. 30, 2023 and were randomly divided into the training set and the test set in a 7∶3 ratio. The characteristic variables were screened out by Lasso algorithm, the problems of class imbalance were corrected by SMOTE algorithm, and nine types of machine learning prediction models were constructed. The performance of the prediction models was assessed by means of area under the curves (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA), the output of the best model was interpreted by shapley additive explanations(SHAP). RESULTS Among the 540 patients with perianal abscess, 109 had MDROs infections. History of diabetes mellitus, extent of abscess, triglyceride and previous history of perianal abscess were the four major indexes for prediction of MDROs infections. Support vector machine (SVM) model showed the best performance among all the models(AUC=0.772,95%CI:0.675 to 0.868), with the prediction probability well-calibrated, and the DCA showed that it had high net benefit. SHAP analysis further revealed that the extent of abscess and history of diabetes mellitus had the greatest impact on the prediction of the models. CONCLUSION The SVM model is constructed and explained by SHAP, which may provide a quantitative tool for clinical identification of the perianal abscess patients with MDROs infections and optimization of use of antibiotics.

     

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