NLR动态轨迹预测脓毒症患者远期死亡风险

Dynamic trajectory of NLR for predicting long-term mortality risk in patients with sepsis

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比值(NLR)在脓毒症患者入院后14 d内的动态轨迹,并评估其对于180 d全因死亡风险的预测价值。方法 本研究回顾性的收取2023年1月1日-2024年1月1日蚌埠医科大学第一附属医院的297例成年脓毒症患者。首先收集患者入院后14 d内的中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞计数,计算NLR指标,通过限制性立方样条分析NLR与死亡风险的关系,利用潜变量增长模型描述NLR随时间变化轨迹,采用多因素COX回归分析筛选死亡风险因素,并使用Kaplan-Meier分析及亚组分析比较各轨迹组死亡风险。结果 NLR与死亡风险呈非线性关系(P<0.05),根据NLR动态变化,将患者分为5类:Class 1(高水平持续下降组,n=74)、Class 2(低水平稳定组,n=12)、Class 3(中水平上升组,n=123)、Class 4(高水平持续升高组,n=19)和Class 5(中水平持续下降组,n=69)。调整混杂因素后,Class 4组(高水平持续升高组)院内死亡风险最高(P<0.05),亚组分析显示,高水平持续升高的NLR轨迹(Class 4)其死亡风险在不同年龄、性别和心力衰竭的患者中均显著升高,且未发现显著的交互作用,NLR轨迹指标具有普适性。结论 在脓毒症患者中,NLR高水平持续升高的患者远期的死亡风险更高,NLR轨迹变化可作为脓毒症患者远期死亡风险的早期评估指标。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To investigate the dynamic trajectory of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) within 14 days after admission in patients with sepsis, and evaluate its predictive value for 180-day all-cause mortality risk. METHODS This study retrospectively enrolled 297 adult patients with sepsis from the First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University between Jan. 1, 2023 and Jan. 1, 2024. Daily neutrophil and lymphocyte counts during the first 14 days after admission were collected to calculate NLR. Restricted cubic spline was used to analyze the relationship between NLR and mortality risk. Latent variable growth model was employed to characterize the trajectory of NLR changes over time. Multivariate COX regression was applied to identify mortality risk factors. Meanwhile, Kaplan-Meier and subgroup analyses were conducted to compare mortality risks across trajectory groups. RESULTS NLR demonstrated a nonlinear relationship with mortality risk (P<0.05). Based on the dynamic changes of NLR, patients were divided into five categories: Class 1 (high-level persistent decline group, n=74), Class 2 (low-level stable group, n=12), Class 3 (moderate-level increase group, n=123), Class 4 (high-level persistent increase group, n=19) and Class 5 (moderate-level persistent decline group, n=69). After adjustment for confounding factors, Class 4 (high-level persistent increase group) exhibited the highest in-hospital mortality risk (P<0.05). Subgroup analyses confirmed significantly increased mortality risks for Class 4 across patients of different age, sex and heart failure levels without significant interactions, indicating the generalizability of NLR trajectory indicators. CONCLUSIONS For patients with sepsis, those with high-level persistent increase of NLR have a higher long-term mortality risk. NLR trajectory change can serve as an early assessment indicator for long-term mortality risk in patients with sepsis.

     

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