其他感染性腹泻的夏季气象预警及其预测模型

Meteorological early warning of other infectious diarrhea in summer and their prediction models

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨短期气象波动对其他感染性腹泻日就诊量的独立滞后影响,为构建气象预警驱动下的前瞻性护理应对策略提供量化依据。方法 收集济南市某三甲医院2024年夏季腹泻门诊1 290例其他感染性腹泻病例资料及同期气象数据。采用Spearman相关分析评估各气象因素在0~14 d不同滞后期与日就诊量的关联。构建包含移动平均去趋势变量的广义相加模型(GAM),剥离长期季节趋势,探究短期气象波动与日就诊量间的非线性滞后关系。结果 日均气温与日就诊量在滞后4 d时正相关最强(r=0.585,P<0.001),海平面气压在滞后9 d时负相关最强(r=-0.686,P<0.001)。GAM模型分析表明,在控制了季节性趋势后,平均气温滞后0~4 d的短期升高与腹泻就诊风险呈显著非线性正相关,风险在气温较季节性趋势偏高约0.50 ℃(高风险窗口0.50~1.00 ℃)时达到峰值,而海平面气压滞后7~11 d的短期波动则呈显著近线性负相关,当气压低于季节性趋势-1.00 hPa时风险显著增加,而高于1.00 hPa时则体现显著保护效应。结论 短期气温的突升与海平面气压的降低是驱动其他感染性腹泻就诊风险增加的关键暴露因素,而海平面气压的正向波动则扮演了显著的保护角色。该量化关系可为建立气象预警系统、指导诊疗资源前瞻性调配与制定动态干预预案提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the independent lagged effects of short-term meteorological fluctuations on the daily visits of other infectious diarrhea, providing a quantitative basis for constructing prospective nursing response strategies driven by meteorological early warning. METHODS Data from 1 290 cases of other infectious diarrhea in the outpatient department of a three-A hospital in Jinan during the summer of 2024, along with concurrent meteorological data, were collected. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess the association between various meteorological factors and daily visits at lag periods of 0-14 days. A generalized additive model (GAM) incorporating moving average detrending variables was constructed to remove long-term seasonal trends and investigate the nonlinear lagged relationship between short-term meteorological fluctuations and daily visits. RESULTS The strongest positive correlation between daily mean temperature and daily visits occurred at a lag of 4 days (r=0.585, P<0.001), while the strongest negative correlation with sea-level pressure was observed at a lag of 9 days (r=-0.686, P<0.001). GAM analysis revealed that, after controlling for seasonal trends, short-term increases in mean temperature at lags of 0-4 days showed a significant nonlinear positive correlation with diarrhea visit risk, peaking when temperatures were approximately 0.50°C above the seasonal trend (high-risk window: 0.50-1.00°C). In contrast, short-term fluctuations in sea-level pressure at lags of 7-11 days exhibited a nearly linear negative correlation, with significantly elevated risks when pressure fell below -1.00 hPa of the seasonal trend, while pressures above 1.00 hPa demonstrated a significant protective effect. CONCLUSIONS Short-term temperature spikes and decreases in sea-level pressure are key exposure factors driving increased visit risks for other infectious diarrhea, whereas positive fluctuations in sea-level pressure play a notable protective role. This quantitative relationship provides a scientific basis for establishing meteorological early warning systems, guiding prospective allocation of diagnosis and treatment resources, and developing dynamic intervention plans.

     

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