头颈癌放疗期间肺部感染病原菌及风险预测模型构建

Pathogenic bacteria and risk prediction model construction for pulmonary infection during radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨头颈癌放疗患者肺部感染发生的危险因素,并构建预测模型。。方法 选取2020年8月-2025年8月于中国医学科学院北京协和医学院肿瘤医院接受放疗的466例头颈癌患者为研究对象,根据患者在放疗期间是否发生肺部感染将其分为两组。通过多因素logistic回归分析确定独立预测因子,进而借助R软件构建预测模型。。结果 466例头颈癌放疗患者肺部感染发生率为16.31%。年龄、吸烟史、肺部疾病史、血清C-反应蛋白(CRP)、血清D-二聚体是头颈癌放疗患者发生肺部感染的影响因素(均P<0.05)。基于上述影响因素建模,内部验证受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.929(95%CI:0.901~0.950, P<0.001),模型区分度良好;Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型拟合良好(χ2=9.024,P=0.340)。。结论 本研究所建模型预测性能好、临床价值高,可作为有效的决策支持工具,帮助医护人员筛选出感染高风险个体,进而实施及时干预,这也为改善患者临床结局、提升放疗疗效提供了重要的实践指导。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the risk factors of pulmonary infection in patients with head and neck cancer undergoing radiotherapy, and to construct a prediction model. METHODSA total of 466 patients with head and neck cancer who underwent radiotherapy at the Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College from Aug. 2020 to Aug. 2025 were selected as the study subjects. Patients were divided into two groups based on whether they developed a pulmonary infection during radiotherapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors, and a prediction model was subsequently constructed with R software. RESULTSThe incidence of pulmonary infection in 466 patients with head and neck cancer undergoing radiotherapy was 16.31%. Age, smoking history, history of pulmonary disease, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum D-dimer were influencing factors for the development of pulmonary infection in these patients (all P<0.05). Based on the aforementioned influencing factors, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for internal validation was 0.929 (95% CI: 0.901-0.950, P<0.001), indicating good model discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good model fit (χ2=9.024, P=0.340). CONCLUSIONThe model established in this study exhibits excellent predictive performance and high clinical value, and can be served as an effective decision-support tool. It assists medical staff in identifying individuals with a high risk of infection, enabling timely intervention. This provides crucial practical guidance for improving patient clinical outcomes and promoting the efficacy of radiotherapy.

     

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