基于LASSO变量选择构建老年早期胃癌ESD术后感染风险预测模型

Construction of risk prediction model for postoperative infections in elderly patients with early gastric cancer undergoing ESD based on LASSO variable selection

  • 摘要: 目的 利用最小绝对收缩和选择算法(LASSO)构建老年早期胃癌患者内镜黏膜下剥离术(ESD)术后感染风险预测模型,为术后感染预防提供科学依据。方法 选择2022年5月-2025年5月于西南医科大学附属中医医院行ESD治疗的545例老年早期胃癌患者为研究对象。经LASSO回归筛选关键变量; 通过贝叶斯网络分析各因素内在联系并评估模型效能。结果 LASSO回归共筛选出12个ESD术后感染关键变量,即糖尿病史、吸烟史、术中出血、术中穿孔、术后迟发性穿孔、手术时间、美国医师麻醉协会(ASA)分级及术前白蛋白(ALB)、淋巴细胞计数(Lym)、CRP、血红蛋白(Hb)和前白蛋白(PA)水平。贝叶斯网络模型发现术前Hb、CRP及术中穿孔、术后迟发性穿孔与术后感染存在直接联系; 糖尿病史、吸烟史通过影响术前Hb、Lym、PA水平,间接影响术后感染发生; ASA分级与术前ALB、PA间接关联术前CRP,并且通过术前CRP影响术后感染发生; 手术时间与术中出血、术前ALB间接关联,从而引发术后感染。Bootstrap验证前后,模型准确率为90.97%、89.68%,提示贝叶斯网络风险预测模型性能良好(P<0.001)。结论 针对老年早期胃癌患者ESD术后感染影响因素构建的LASSO变量选择模型,符合临床与理论规律,并且在感染风险预测中具有较高临床应用价值。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To construct the risk prediction model for postoperative infections in elderly patients with early gastric cancer undergoing endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) with the use of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression so as to provide scientific bases for prevention of postoperative infections. METHODS Totally 545 elderly patients with early gastric cancer who underwent ESD in the Affiliated Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Southwest Medical University from May 2022 to May 2025 were recruited as the research subjects. The major variables were screened by LASSO regression; the intrinsic connections among the various factors were analyzed through Bayesian network, and the efficacy of the model was evaluated. RESULTS Totally 12 major variables for the postoperative infections in the patients undergoing ESD were screened out by LASSO regression, namely diabetes mellitus history, smoking history, intraoperative bleeding, intraoperative perforation, postoperative delayed perforation, operation duration, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and preoperative albumin (ALB), lymphocyte count (Lym), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin (Hb), and prealbumin (PA). The Bayesian network model revealed that the preoperative Hb, CRP, intraoperative perforation and postoperative delayed perforation were directly correlated with the postoperative infections; the diabetes mellitus history and smoking history indirectly affected the emergence of postoperative infections by influencing the preoperative Hb, Lym and PA; ASA classification was indirectly associated with the preoperative ALB, PA, and preoperative CRP, and it affected the occurrence of postoperative infections through preoperative CRP; the operation duration was indirectly associated with the intraoperative hemorrhage and preoperative ALB, which then resulted in the postoperative infections. The accurate rates of the model were 90.97% and 89.68% before and after the Bootstrap validation, respectively, indicating that the Bayesian network risk prediction model had favorable performance (P<0.001). CONCLUSION The LASSO variable selection model that is constructed targeting the influencing factors for the postoperative infections in the elderly patients with early gastric cancer conforms to the clinical and theoretical laws and has high clinical value in risk prediction of infections.

     

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