脑室内化疗Ommaya囊相关性颅内感染风险预测模型构建与验证

Construction of risk prediction model for Ommaya reservoir-associated intracranial infections in intraventricular chemotherapy patients and its validation

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨预测脑室内化疗使用Ommaya囊后发生颅内感染的相关因素,并构建风险预测模型。方法 回顾性选取2023年1月-2025年5月南京医科大学附属脑科医院收治的Ommaya囊脑膜转移瘤患者为研究对象。通过多因素logistic回归分析筛选使用Ommaya囊后发生颅内感染的相关因素,并建立预测模型。采用Bootstrap法进行内部验证; 通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积评估模型的区分度; 利用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验与校准曲线评价校准度; 应用决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的临床净获益。结果 本研究纳入的300例患者累计接受Ommaya囊脑室化疗1 627次,颅内感染发生率为14.29%。多因素分析显示,Ommaya囊穿刺次数(OR=1.102, 95%CI: 0.965~1.259)、Ommaya囊穿刺部位脑脊液漏(OR=14.185, 95%CI:5.495~36.617)、Ommaya囊局部皮肤感染(OR =12.202, 95%CI:4.481~33.229)、同步头颅放疗(OR =4.739, 95%CI:2.033~11.045)及脑脊液葡萄糖水平(OR=0.651, 95%CI:0.436~0.972)均为脑室内化疗Ommaya囊相关性颅内感染的预测因素(P<0.05)。所构建模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.879(95%CI: 0.816~0.942),经Bootstrap内部验证后曲线下面积为0.877(95%CI:0.806~0.933),表明模型具有优异的区分能力。校准曲线显示预测概率与实际风险高度一致,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验提示拟合良好(χ2=4.098, P=0.848)。DCA表明,当阈值概率在6%~89%范围内,应用该模型可为临床决策带来净获益。结论 本研究构建的Ommaya囊相关颅内感染风险预测模型具有良好的区分度和校准度,可为临床识别高危患者提供参考。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the related factors for intracranial infections in intraventricular chemotherapy patients after they were treated with Ommaya reservoir (OmR) and construct the risk prediction model. METHODS The meningeal metastases patients who were treated with OmR in Affiliated Brain Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from Jan. 2023 to May 2025 were recruited as the research subjects. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to screen out the related factors for the intracranial infections after the use of OmR, and the prediction model was established. The internal validation was carried out by Bootstrap method, and the model's discrimination was assessed by means of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve; the calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves. The clinical net profit was assessed through decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS The 300 patients involved in the study accumulatively received intraventricular chemotherapy with OmR for 1627 times, and the incidence of intracranial infections was 14.29%. The multivariate analysis showed that the number of times of OmR punctures (OR = 1.102, 95%CI: 0.965 to 1.259), cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leakage at the OmR puncture site (OR = 14.185, 95%CI: 5.495 to 36.617), local skin infection around the OmR (OR = 12.202, 95%CI: 4.481 to 33.229), concurrent cranial radiotherapy (OR = 4.739, 95%CI: 2.033 to 11.045), and CSF glucose level (OR = 0.651, 95%CI: 0.436 to 0.972) were the predictive factors for the OmR-associated intracranial infections in the intraventricular chemotherapy patients(P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.879(95%CI: 0.816 to 0.942), and the area under the curve was 0.877(95%CI:0.806 to 0.933) after the internal validation with Bootstrap, indicating that the model had excellent discrimination ability. The calibration curves showed that the predicated probability was highly consistent with the actual risk, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated that the model had high goodness of fit(χ2=4.098, P=0.848). DCA suggested that the model could bring net profit to the clinical decision when the threshold probability ranged between 6% and 89%. CONCLUSIONS The established risk prediction model for OmR-associated intracranial infections demonstrates high discrimination and calibration, and it may provide references for clinical identification of high-risk patients.

     

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