影像组学与临床特征融合模型预测HIV合并马尔尼菲蓝状菌肺炎患者住院死亡风险

Efficacy of radiomics integrated with multimodal prediction model of clinical features in prediction of mortality risk of HIV infection patients complicated with Talaromyces marneffei pneumonia during hospital stay

  • 摘要: 目的 开发并验证融合影像组学特征与临床指标的多模态预测模型,精准评估人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染合并马尔尼菲蓝状菌肺炎(TMP)患者住院期间的死亡风险。方法 纳入2020年1月1日-2025年8月31日南宁市第四人民医院收治的216例HIV-TMP患者,按7∶3比例随机分为训练集151例与验证集65例。收集患者入院48 h内胸部CT影像及临床资料,通过PyRadiomics平台提取影像组学特征,经组内相关系数(ICC)>0.8筛选稳定性特征。分别构建临床模型、影像组学模型及二者的融合模型并验证。结果 临床模型中血小板计数、C-反应蛋白、白蛋白等指标与死亡风险相关(P<0.05)。基于上述特征构建的临床模型在训练集和验证集中的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.894和0.785,验证集特异度达0.930,但灵敏度仅为0.591。LASSO结合十折交叉验证进行影像组学特征筛选,最终选取24个特征构建影像组学模型,验证集AUC为0.722,灵敏度高达0.955,特异度却低至0.488。融合模型在训练集和验证集中均表现最优,验证集AUC为0.821(95%CI:0.702为0.941),特异度达0.977。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示融合模型校准良好,决策曲线分析(DCA)表明其在验证集中阈值概率0.2~0.6范围内净获益高于"全部干预"或"全部不干预"策略。结论 融合影像组学与临床特征的预测模型能够显著提升对HIV-TMP患者住院死亡风险的判别能力与临床适用性,有助于实现早期风险分层与医疗资源优化配置。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To develop the radiomics integrated with multimodal prediction model of clinical indicators and validate its efficacy in precise assessment of the mortality risk of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection patients complicated with Talaromyces marneffei pneumonia (TMP) during hospital stay. METHODS Totally 216 patients with HIV-TMP who were treated in Nanning Fourth People's Hospital from Jan. 1, 2020 to Aug. 31, 2025 were enrolled in the study and were randomly divided into the training set with 151 cases and the validation set with 65 cases in a 7∶3 ratio. The chest CT imaging findings and clinical data were collected from the patients within 48 hours after the admission. The radiomic features were obtained through PyRadiomics platform, the stability features were screened out by more than 0.8 of interclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The clinical model, radiomics model and the integrated model were established and validated, respectively. RESULTS The indicators of the clinical model, including blood platelet counts, C-reactive protein and albumin, were associated with the mortality risk (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the clinical model that was established based on features was 0.894 in the training set, 0.785 in the validation set, with the specificity reaching 0.930 in the validation set, the sensitivity only 0.591. The radiomics features were screened through LASSO regression combined with 10-fold cross-validation, 24 features were finally selected for the establishment of the radiomics model, and the AUC of the validation set was 0.722, with the sensitivity up to 0.955, the specificity down to 0.488. The integrated model exhibited the best performance in both the training set and the validation set, with the AUC 0.821 in the validation set (95%CI:0.702 to 0.941), the specificity up to 0.977. Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated that the integrated model had good calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the model yielded higher net benefit in the validation set with the threshold probability ranging between 0.2 and 0.6 than the strategy of ' complete intervention' or 'complete no intervention'. CONCLUSION The radiomics integrated with prediction model of clinical features can remarkably intensify the capability of discriminating the mortality risk of the HIV-TMP patients during the hospital stay, boost the clinical adaptability, facilitate the achievement of risk stratification in early stage, and optimize the allocation of medical resources.

     

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