Nomogram与CART模型预测脓毒症预后不良的效能

A comparative study on efficiencies of Nomogram and CART model inprediction of poor prognosis of sepsis patients

  • 摘要: 目的 对比分析列线图(Nomogram)和分类与回归树(CART)模型对脓毒症患者预后不良的预测效能,为临床决策提供更为精准的风险评估工具。方法 回顾性收集并分析2023年1月-2024年1月南阳市第一人民医院收治的130例脓毒症患者的临床数据。根据患者入院治疗28 d内的生存情况,将其分为生存组(n=81)和死亡组(n=49)。通过单因素及多因素logistic回归分析筛选出影响脓毒症患者预后不良的预测因素,分别构建Nomogram模型和CART决策树模型,并采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估两种模型的预测性能。结果 死亡组与生存组在C-反应蛋白、降钙素原、尿素氮、血肌酐、前白蛋白、总胆红素、APACHEⅡ评分、SOFA评分等方面的差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,C-反应蛋白、降钙素原及APACHEⅡ评分、SOFA评分升高是脓毒症患者预后不良的相关因素(P<0.05)。Nomogram模型和CART决策树模型的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.870、0.951,灵敏度分别为86.8%、90.6%,特异度分别为86.0%、80.0%,其中CART决策树模型的AUC大于Nomogram模型(Z=4.458,P=0.025)。结论 Nomogram和CART决策树模型均能有效预测脓毒症患者的预后不良风险,其中CART决策树模型预测效能更优。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To observe and compare the efficiencies of Nomogram and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model in prediction of poor prognosis of the patients with sepsis so as to provide more precise risk prediction tool for clinical decision. METHODS The clinical data were retrospectively collected from 130 patients with sepsis who were treated in Nanyang First People's Hospital from Jan. 2023 to Jan. 2024. The enrolled patients were divided into the survival group with 81 cases and the death group with 49 cases according to the survival status within 28 days after the admission. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to screen out the predictive factors that affected the poor prognosis of the sepsis patients, the Nomogram model and the CART model were respectively constructed, and the predictive efficiencies of the two models were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS There were significant differences in C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, prealbumin, total bilirubin, APACHEⅡ score and SOFA between the death group and the survival group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the rises of CRP, PCT, APACHEⅡ score and SOFA were associated with the poor prognosis of the sepsis patients (P<0.05). The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of the Nomogram model and the CART model were 0.870 and 0.951, respectively; the sensitivities were 86.8% and 90.6%, respectively; the specificities were 86.0% and 80.0%, respectively; the AUC of the CART decision-making tree model was greater than that of the Nomogram model(Z=4.458,P=0.025). CONCLUSIONS Both the Nomogram model and the CART decision-making tree model can effectively predict the risk of poor prognosis of the sepsis patients, and the predictive efficiency of the CART decision-making tree model is higher than that of the Nomogram model.

     

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