基于围术期多维度变量预测老年结直肠癌患者手术部位感染的模型构建及验证

Construction and validation of a model for predicting surgical site infection in elderly patients with colorectal cancer based on perioperative multidimensional variables

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨老年结直肠癌术后患者发生手术部位感染的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。方法 选取2021年1月-2025年5月聊城市人民医院收治的1 268例老年结直肠癌患者为研究对象,按照7∶3比例将其随机分配至模型训练集(n=888例)和验证集(n=380例)。采用LASSO-logistic回归进行变量筛选,并构建列线图模型,分别绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线对模型性能进行内部验证。结果 糖尿病(OR=2.857, 95%CI: 1.695~4.815)、ASA分级III级(OR=2.081, 95%CI: 1.210~3.580)、多发肿瘤(OR=5.613, 95%CI: 2.745~11.479)、直肠肿瘤(OR=3.086, 95%CI: 1.809~5.265)、糖类抗原19-9(CA19-9)>39 U/ml(OR=3.516, 95%CI: 2.026~6.103)、手术时长(OR=1.519, 95%CI: 1.179~1.957)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的危险因素; CD4+/CD8+比值(OR=0.443, 95%CI: 0.241~0.813)、血清白蛋白(OR=0.901, 95%CI: 0.855~0.950)、择期手术(OR=0.109, 95%CI: 0.032~0.375)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的保护因素。基于上述指标构建列线图模型,验证集的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.797(95%CI:0.717~0.865),表明该模型区分度良好; Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,该模型的准确性和一致性较好(χ2=6.315,P=0.097)。结论 本研究基于LASSO-logistic构建的列线图预测模型具有良好预测价值,有助于临床术前早期识别SSI高风险患者并实施针对性感控措施,优化围术期管理。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the influencing factors for surgical site infection (SSI) in elderly patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) after surgery, and to construct and validate a nomogram prediction model. METHODS A total of 1 268 elderly patients with CRC admitted to Liaocheng People's Hospital from Jan. 2021 to May 2025 were selected as the study subjects and randomly assigned to a model training set (n=888 cases) and a validation set (n=380 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio. LASSO-logistic regression was used for variable selection, and a nomogram model was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were plotted to internally validate the model performance. RESULTS Diabetes mellitus (OR=2.857, 95%CI: 1.695-4.815), ASA class III (OR=2.081, 95%CI: 1.210-3.580), multiple tumors (OR=5.613, 95%CI: 2.745-11.479), rectal tumors (OR=3.086, 95%CI: 1.809-5.265), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) >39 U/ml (OR=3.516, 95%CI: 2.026-6.103) and operation duration (OR=1.519, 95%CI: 1.179-1.957) were identified as risk factors for SSI in elderly patients with CRC after surgery. CD4+/CD8+ ratio (OR=0.443, 95%CI: 0.241-0.813), serum albumin (OR=0.901, 95%CI: 0.855-0.950) and elective surgery (OR=0.109, 95%CI: 0.032-0.375) were identified as protective factors for SSI in elderly patients with CRC after surgery. Based on the aforementioned indicators, a nomogram model was constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the validation set was 0.797 (95%CI: 0.717-0.865), indicating good discriminatory power of the model. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that the model had good accuracy and consistency (χ2=6.315, P=0.097). CONCLUSIONS The nomogram prediction model constructed based on LASSO-logistic in this study has good predictive value, which is helpful for early identification of high-risk patients for SSI before surgery and implementation of targeted infection control measures, optimizing perioperative management.

     

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