重症肺炎多重耐药菌感染风险预测模型构建与验证

Construction and validation of risk prediction model for multidrug-resistant organisms infections in severe pneumonia patients

  • 摘要: 目的 分析重症肺炎患者多重耐药菌(MDROs)感染的病原学特征,构建并验证MDROs感染风险预测模型,为早期识别高危患者、实施精准防控提供依据。方法 回顾性收集2024年1月-2025年7月上海中医药大学附属龙华医院重症医学科收治的452例重症肺炎患者。按时间分为训练集(315例)和验证集(137例)。分析训练集患者呼吸道标本的病原菌分布特征; 通过单因素分析、LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归筛选预测因素,构建列线图模型。采用Bootstrap法进行内部验证,并使用时序验证集进行验证,通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。结果 训练集共检出病原菌173株,革兰阴性菌占61.85%,革兰阳性菌占38.15%。多因素分析确定4个预测因素(均P<0.05):脑血管疾病史(OR=1.764)、抗菌药物使用种类≥3种(OR=3.071)、有创机械通气时间≥3 d(OR=2.772)、胃管留置时间≥7 d(OR=2.436)。模型在训练集与验证集中的AUC分别为0.773和0.790,校准曲线显示预测风险与实际风险一致性良好,决策曲线分析表明模型在较宽阈值范围内具有临床净获益。结论 重症肺炎患者MDROs感染以革兰阴性菌为主。本研究构建的预测模型具有良好的区分能力、校准度和临床适用性,可为重症肺炎患者MDROs感染的早期识别与针对性干预提供可视化工具。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To observe the etiological characteristics of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) infections in the patients with severe pneumonia, construct and validate the risk prediction model for MDROs infections so as to provide bases for early identification of high-risk patients and implementation of precise prevention and control. METHODS A total of 452 patients with severe pneumonia who were treated in critical care medicine department of Longhua Hospital, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from Jan. 2024 to Jul. 2025 were retrospectively enrolled in the study and were divided into the training group with 315 cases and the validation group with 137 cases. The distribution of pathogens isolated from respiratory tract specimens of the patients in the training group was observed. The predictive factors were screened out through univariate analysis, LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression, the nomogram model was established. The internal validation was carried out by Bootstrap, the model was validated by temporal validation set. The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were assessed by the areas under the curves (AUCs), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS Totally 173 strains of pathogens were isolated from the training group, of which 61.85% were gram-negative bacteria, and 38.15% were gram-positive bacteria. The multivariate analysis showed that there were 4 predictive factors( all P<0.05) as follows: history of cerebrovascular diseases(OR=1.764), use of no less than 3 types of antibiotics(OR=3.071), no less than 3 days of invasive mechanical ventilation(OR=2.772), gastric tube indwelling duration no less than 7 days(OR=2.436). The AUC of the model was 0.773 in the training model, 0.790 in the validation group. The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed risks, and DCA indicated that the model provided clinical net benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. CONCLUSIONS The gram-negative bacteria are dominant among the pathogens isolated from the severe pneumonia patients with MDROs infections. The prediction model exhibits satisfactory discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability, and it can be served as a visual tool for early identification and targeted intervention to the MDROs infection in the severe pneumonia patients.

     

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