结直肠癌术后患者腹腔感染风险预测模型的Meta分析

Risk prediction model for postoperative intraabdominal infections in patientswith colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis

  • 摘要: 目的 系统分析现有结直肠癌术后患者腹腔感染的风险预测模型,为模型应用和优化提供循证参考。方法 系统检索CINAHL、PubMed、Web of Science、Cochrane Library、Embase、知网、维普、万方和中国生物医学文献数据库自建库至2025年10月发表的与结直肠癌术后患者腹腔感染风险预测模型相关的文献。两名研究者独立进行文献筛选、质量评价和数据提取。采用Stata 15.0软件进行Meta分析。结果 共纳入15篇文献,涉及16个模型,均为国内学者发表。Meta分析显示,结直肠癌术后患者腹腔感染发生率为18.15%,合并曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.876(95%CI:0.842~0.909,P<0.001)。糖尿病(OR=2.895,95%CI:2.175~3.854,P<0.001)、手术时间(OR=2.986,95%CI:1.977~4.508,P<0.001)、术后吻合口瘘(OR=8.889,95%CI:4.079~19.373,P<0.001)、年龄(OR=2.188,95%CI:1.609~2.975,P<0.001)、术前白蛋白(OR=2.754,95%CI:1.948~3.893,P<0.001)及术后留置引流管时间(OR=2.581,95%CI:1.672~3.985,P<0.001)是其预测因素。结论 结直肠癌术后腹腔感染发生较为常见,且与多种因素有关。未来应重点关注上述危险因素,并选择适宜的风险预测模型进行早期识别,以降低腹腔感染的发生率。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To systematically analyze the current risk prediction model for postoperative intraabdominal infections in the patients with colorectal cancer so as to provide evidence-based reference for application and optimization of the model. METHODS The literatures relating to the risk prediction model for postoperative intraabdominal infections in patients with colorectal cancer were systematically retrieved from CINAHL, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Embase, CNKI, VIP, Wanfang and China Biomedical Literature Database between their creation time and Oct. 2025. The screening of literatures, quality evaluation and data extraction were performed independently by two researchers. A meta-analysis was performed by Stata 15.0 software. RESULTS A total of 15 literatures involving 16 models were included, all of which were published by Chinese researchers. The meta-analysis showed that the incidence of postoperative abdominal infections was 18.15% among the colorectal cancer patients, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.876(95%CI:0.842 to 0.909,P<0.001). Diabetes mellitus(OR=2.895,95%CI:2.175 to 3.854,P<0.001), operation duration(OR=2.986,95%CI:1.977 to 4.508,P<0.001), postoperative anastomotic fistula(OR=8.889,95%CI:4.079 to 19.373,P<0.001), age (OR=2.188,95%CI:1.609 to 2.975,P<0.001), preoperative albumin(OR=2.754,95%CI:1.948 to 3.893,P<0.001) and postoperative drainage tube indwelling time(OR=2.581,95%CI:1.672 to 3.985,P<0.001)were the predictive factors. CONCLUSIONS The postoperative abdominal infection is common among the colorectal cancer patients and is associated with a variety of factors. It is necessary to focus on the above risk factors and choose an appropriate risk prediction model for earl identification so as to reduce the incidence of abdominal infections.

     

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