个体化预测重症急性胰腺炎并发腹腔感染的交互式列线图模型建立

Development of an interactive nomogram model for individualized prediction of abdominal infection complicating severe acute pancreatitis

  • 摘要: 目的 分析重症急性胰腺炎(SAP)患者并发腹腔感染影响因素,并构建SAP患者并发腹腔感染的交互式列线图模型。方法 选择2023年10月-2025年8月在南京医科大学第一附属医院收治的253例SAP患者为对象,收集患者病例资料,按照7∶3的比例将253例SAP患者分为训练集(n=177)和验证集(n=76),根据患者是否发生腹腔感染将训练集分为感染组和非感染组。采用单因素和多因素logistic回归分析筛选SAP患者并发腹腔感染的影响因素,采用R语言构建列线图模型,最后对模型进行验证。结果 腹腔感染发生率为35.59%。logistic回归分析显示,高急性生理与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ评分)、高CT严重指数(CTSI评分)、胰腺坏死、有腹腔积液、肠麻痹时间长、禁食时间长均是SAP患者并发腹腔感染的危险因素(均P<0.05)。受试者工作特征(ROC)分析显示,训练集模型的曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.936(95%CI:0.890~0.968),验证集为0.911(95%CI:0.830~0.962)。校正曲线显示,列线图模型预测SAP患者并发腹腔感染的预测值和实际值相接近。结论 本研究构建的列线图有助于以临床早期评估和识别SAP患者并发腹腔感染的高危患者,对预防病情进展具有较好的指导意义。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the influencing factors of abdominal infection in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and to develop an interactive nomogram model for predicting this complication. METHODS A total of 253 SAP patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from Oct. 2023 to Aug. 2025 were enrolled, and their case data were collected. The patients were then divided into a training set (n=177) and a validation set (n=76) in a 7∶3 ratio. The training set was further divided into an infection group and a non-infection group based on the occurrence of abdominal infection. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to screen the influencing factors of abdominal infection in SAP patients. The nomogram model was developed through R language. Finally, validation was performed for the model. RESULTS The incidence rate of abdominal infection was 35.59%. Logistic regression analysis showed that high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, high CT Severity Index (CTSI) score, pancreatic necrosis, presence of abdominal effusion, prolonged intestinal paralysis and prolonged fasting duration were all risk factors for abdominal infection in SAP patients (all P<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the area under curve (AUC) value was 0.936 (95% CI: 0.890-0.968) in the training set model and 0.911 (95% CI: 0.830-0.962) in the validation set model. The calibration curve revealed that the predicted values of the nomogram model for abdominal infection in SAP patients were close to the actual values. CONCLUSION The nomogram developed in this study can assist in early clinical assessment and identification of high-risk SAP patients with concurrent abdominal infection, providing guidance for preventing disease progression.

     

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