基于机器学习的术后呼吸机相关性肺炎耐碳青霉烯鲍曼不动杆菌感染危险因素

Risk factors for carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infection in postoperative ventilator-associated pneumonia identified by machine learning models

  • 摘要: 目的 基于机器学习方法分析术后呼吸机相关性肺炎(VAP)患者发生耐碳青霉烯类鲍曼不动杆菌(CRAB)感染的相关因素,为理解该人群CRAB感染的高危特征、优化感染防控策略提供依据。方法 回顾性纳入北部战区总医院2022-2025年术后入住重症监护室(ICU)且发生VAP的患者。采用Boruta算法联合最小绝对收缩与选择算子回归(LASSO)筛选关键变量,基于筛选结果构建随机森林、构建梯度提升、轻量级梯度提升机、极端随机树、支持向量机及logistic回归模型。通过曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线、Brier评分及决策曲线分析(DCA)在测试集中评估模型性能,并采用Shapley加性解释(SHAP)方法解释最优模型。结果 共纳入894例VAP患者,CRAB感染发生率为44.85%。最终纳入住院时长、中心静脉导管留置天数、使用呼吸机天数、碳青霉烯类抗菌药物使用等10个变量。各模型AUC为0.846~0.864,其中随机森林模型AUC最高(0.864,95%CI:0.817~0.904),校准性能最佳(Brier=0.150),且在0.1~0.8阈值概率范围内获得较高临床净获益。SHAP分析显示,中心静脉导管留置天数、使用呼吸机天数、ICU住院时间及碳青霉烯类抗菌药物使用为主要关联因素。结论 机器学习结果显示,中心静脉导管留置时间、机械通气天数、ICU住院时间及碳青霉烯类抗菌药物暴露是术后VAP患者发生CRAB感染的核心相关因素,可为该人群的感染防控重点识别与策略制定提供依据。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the factors associated with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) infection in patients with postoperative ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) through machine learning methods, thereby providing a basis for understanding the high-risk characteristics of CRAB infection in this population and optimizing infection prevention and control strategies. METHODS We retrospectively included a cohort of patients who developed VAP after surgery and were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at the General Hospital of the Northern Theater Command from 2022 to 2025. The Boruta algorithm combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was employed to screen key variables. Based on this, random forest, gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, extra trees, support vector machine and logistic regression models were developed. Model performance was evaluated in the test set through the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, Brier score and decision curve analysis (DCA). The optimal model was interpreted through the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). RESULTS A total of 894 patients with VAP were enrolled, with a CRAB infection rate of 44.85%. Ten variables, including length of hospital stay, duration of central venous catheter placement, duration of ventilator use and carbapenem antibiotic use, were ultimately included. The AUC values of the models ranged from 0.846 to 0.864. The random forest model showed the highest AUC (0.864, 95% CI: 0.817-0.904) and the best calibration performance (Brier=0.150), and achieved a high clinical net benefit within the threshold probability range of 0.1-0.8. SHAP analysis revealed that the duration of central venous catheter placement, duration of ventilator use, length of ICU stay and carbapenem antibiotic use were the primary associated factors. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning results indicate that the duration of central venous catheter placement, days of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay and exposure to carbapenem antibiotics are core factors associated with CRAB infection in postoperative VAP patients. These findings provide a basis for identifying key infection prevention and control priorities and formulating strategies for this population.

     

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