基于机器学习全关节置换术后再入院风险预测模型的系统评价

Machine learning-based prediction models for readmission risk following total joint arthroplasty: a systematic review

  • 摘要: 目的 系统评价现有全关节置换术后患者再入院风险的机器学习预测模型研究,为后续预测模型的开发及临床应用提供循证依据。方法 系统检索PubMed、Cochrane Library、Embase、Web of Science、中国知网(CNKI)、维普(VIP)和万方数据库,检索时限为建库至2025年12月1日。依据预测模型系统评价清单提取纳入研究的相关信息,并对其进行系统评价与Meta分析。结果 共纳入15项回顾性研究。Meta分析结果显示,合并受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为 0.78(95%CI:0.71~0.83,P<0.001)。亚组分析结果表明,高阶机器学习算法的预测性能优于传统逻辑回归模型。剔除2项极端值研究后,合并AUC为0.79(95%CI:0.72~0.85,P<0.001),提示合并效应量具有较好的稳健性。结论 机器学习算法预测全关节置换术后患者再入院风险具有较好的预测效能。然而,现有研究整体质量仍有待提升。未来研究应依托我国多中心临床数据,通过规范研究设计、加强外部验证等方法,开发出本土化的风险预测模型。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To systematically evaluate machine learning (ML)-based prediction models for readmission risk in patients after total joint arthroplasty (TJA), and to provide an evidence-based foundation for future model development and clinical application. METHODS A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang databases from their inception to December 1, 2025. Data extraction and quality assessment were conducted according to the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). A systematic review and meta-analysis were then performed. RESULTS Fifteen retrospective studies were included. Meta-analysis results showed that the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.78 95% CI (0.71-0.83), P<0.001. Subgroup analysis indicated that advanced machine learning algorithms outperformed traditional logistic regression models. After sensitivity analysis by excluding two outlier studies, the pooled AUC was 0.79 95% CI (0.72-0.85), P<0.001, suggesting high robustness of the pooled effect size. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning algorithms demonstrate favorable predictive performance for assessing readmission risk following TJA. However, the overall quality of existing studies requires further improvement. Future research should leverage multi-center clinical data from China, standardize research designs, and emphasize external validation to develop localized risk prediction models.

     

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