2015—2024年滨州市其他感染性腹泻发病趋势与时空聚集特征

Incidence trend and spatiotemporal cluster characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Binzhou City from 2015 to 2024

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2015-2024年滨州市其他感染性腹泻(OID)流行特征及时空聚集性,为优化防控策略提供科学依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2015-2024年的OID病例数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析OID发病趋势,并运用描述性流行病学分析方法和时空扫描统计方法探究其流行特征及时空聚集性。结果 2015-2024年滨州市累计报告OID病例62 412例,年均报告发病率为159.76/10万。Joinpoint回归模型表明,2015-2024年滨州市OID报告发病率呈上升趋势平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)=7.25%,P<0.001。病例以农民(41.47%,25 882例)和散居儿童(39.29%,24 521例)为主要人群。发病呈双峰型季节性分布,高峰期为夏秋季(6-8月)与冬春季(12月-次年3月); 其中夏秋季呈聚集性,发病风险为其他季节的1.23倍(RR=1.23,P<0.001)。时空扫描分析显示滨州市OID存在时空聚集性:一是沾化区、无棣县及博兴县(持续时长4年); 二是出现于2024年8-9月的邹平市(持续2个月),其发病风险为其他区域的2.40倍(P<0.001)。结论 2015-2024年滨州市OID维持较高流行水平且发病率显著上升。农民与散居儿童为高危人群,区域流行强度存在异质性。强化重点地区及高危人群的病原学监测与精准防控是遏制疫情的关键措施。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To observe the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal cluster of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Binzhou City from 2015 to 2024 so as to provide scientific bases for optimization of prevention and control strategies. METHODS The data regarding to the OID from 2015 to 2024 cases were obtained from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence trend of OID was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model, and the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clusters were explored by means of descriptive epidemiological analysis method and spatiotemporal cluster scanning statistical method. RESULTS From 2015 to 2024, a total of 62,412 cases of OID were accumulatively reported in Binzhou City, with an incidence rate of 159.76 per 100,000 population reported on annual average. The Joinpoint regression model indicated that the incidence rate of OID reported in Binzhou City from 2015 to 2024 showed upward trendthe average annual percent change (AAPC) = 7.25%, P< 0.001. The affected population primarily consisted of farmers (41.47%, 25, 882 cases) and scattered children (39.29%, 24, 521 cases). The incidence exhibited a bimodal seasonal distribution, with peaks occurring in the summer-autumn period (June-August) and the winter-spring period (December-March); specifically, the summer-autumn peak showed clustering, with the risk of onset being 1.23 times as high as that in other seasons (RR = 1.23, P< 0.001). Spatiotemporal scanning analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal clusters of OID in Binzhou City: one cluster was identified in Zhanhua District, Wudi County, and Boxing County (lasting for 4 years); the other emerged in Zouping City during August-September, 2024 (lasting for 2 months), where the risk of onset was 2.40 times as high as that in other regions (P< 0.001). CONCLUSIONS From 2015 to 2024, OID maintains a high epidemic level in Binzhou City, and the incidence rate is remarkably increased. Farmers and scattered children constitute the high-risk populations, and the regional epidemic intensity exhibits heterogeneity. It is crucial to strengthen the etiological surveillance of high-risk populations in key areas and take precise prevention and control measures so as to control the epidemic.

     

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