Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To construct and validate the nomogram prediction model for the risk of invasive fungal infection (IFI) in the children of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) so as to provide reference for early clinical identification of the children at high risk of the infection.
METHODS A total of 1167 children who were treated in the NICU of Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital from Mar. 2021 to Mar. 2025 were retrospectively recruited as the research subjects, 50 of whom had IFI. The 1167 children were randomly divided into the training set with 817 cases and the validation set with 350 cases in a 7∶3 ratio. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for the predictive factors for IFI, the nomogram model was established, and the efficiency of the model was evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, areas under the curves (AUCs), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test of goodness of fit and decision curve analysis.
RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the extremely low birth weight, premature delivery, malnutrition, central venous catheter indwelling within 24 hours after admission to NICU, mechanical ventilation, combined use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and parenteral nutrition were the independent predictive factors for the IFI in the NICU children (
P<0.05). The nomogram model that was established based on the above predictive factors demonstrated excellent discriminating capability, with the AUC 0.796(95%
CI:0.750 to 0.837) in the training set, 0.813(95%
CI:0.680 to 0.946) in the validation set. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probability was highly consistent with the actual probability, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated that it had excellent goodness of fit (the training set:
χ2=3.490,
P=0.387,the validation set:
χ2=5.908,
P=0.657).
CONCLUSIONS The nomogram model that is established based on the extremely low birth weight, premature delivery, malnutrition, central venous catheter indwelling within 24 hours after admission to NICU, mechanical ventilation, combined use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and parenteral nutrition has certain value in prediction of risk of IFI in the NICU children, which may provide guidance for early risk stratification and preventive intervention.