NICU患儿侵袭性真菌感染发生风险的列线图模型及验证

Nomogram prediction model for risk of invasive fungal infections in children of NICU and its validation

  • 摘要: 目的 构建并验证新生儿重症监护病房(NICU)患儿侵袭性真菌感染(IFI)发生风险的列线图预测模型,为临床早期识别高危患儿提供参考。方法 回顾性选取2021年3月-2025年3月天津市第五中心医院NICU收治的1 167例患儿为研究对象,其中IFI患儿50例,1 167例患儿按7∶3随机分为训练集817例和验证集350例。采用多因素logistic回归分析发生IFI预测因素并构建列线图模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)、曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验、决策曲线分析(DCA)评价模型效能。结果 多因素logistic回归显示,极低出生体质量、早产、营养不良、入住NICU后24 h内中心静脉置管、机械通气、联合使用广谱抗菌药物、接受肠外营养支持为NICU患儿发生IFI的独立预测因素(P<0.05)。基于上述预测因素构建的列线图模型,训练集AUC为0.796(95%CI:0.750~0.837),验证集AUC为0.813(95%CI:0.680~0.946); 校准曲线提示模型拟合良好,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验(训练集:χ2=3.490,P=0.387,验证集:χ2=5.908,P=0.657)。结论 基于极低出生体质量、早产、营养不良、入住NICU后24 h内中心静脉置管、机械通气、联合使用广谱抗菌药物、接受肠外营养支持构建的列线图模型对NICU患儿IFI发生风险具有一定预测价值,可为早期风险分层和防控干预提供参考。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To construct and validate the nomogram prediction model for the risk of invasive fungal infection (IFI) in the children of neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) so as to provide reference for early clinical identification of the children at high risk of the infection. METHODS A total of 1167 children who were treated in the NICU of Tianjin Fifth Central Hospital from Mar. 2021 to Mar. 2025 were retrospectively recruited as the research subjects, 50 of whom had IFI. The 1167 children were randomly divided into the training set with 817 cases and the validation set with 350 cases in a 7∶3 ratio. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for the predictive factors for IFI, the nomogram model was established, and the efficiency of the model was evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, areas under the curves (AUCs), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test of goodness of fit and decision curve analysis. RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the extremely low birth weight, premature delivery, malnutrition, central venous catheter indwelling within 24 hours after admission to NICU, mechanical ventilation, combined use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and parenteral nutrition were the independent predictive factors for the IFI in the NICU children (P<0.05). The nomogram model that was established based on the above predictive factors demonstrated excellent discriminating capability, with the AUC 0.796(95%CI:0.750 to 0.837) in the training set, 0.813(95%CI:0.680 to 0.946) in the validation set. The calibration curves showed that the predicted probability was highly consistent with the actual probability, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated that it had excellent goodness of fit (the training set: χ2=3.490,P=0.387,the validation set:χ2=5.908,P=0.657). CONCLUSIONS The nomogram model that is established based on the extremely low birth weight, premature delivery, malnutrition, central venous catheter indwelling within 24 hours after admission to NICU, mechanical ventilation, combined use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and parenteral nutrition has certain value in prediction of risk of IFI in the NICU children, which may provide guidance for early risk stratification and preventive intervention.

     

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