入住ICU第1天液体蓄积指数与脓毒症患者30 d死亡率的非线性关联

Non-linear association between fluid accumulation index on the first day of ICU admission and 30-day mortality rate of patients with sepsis

  • 摘要: 目的 探究入住ICU第1天的液体蓄积指数对脓毒症患者预后及严重急性肾损伤(AKI)发生风险的影响。方法 基于MIMIC-IV 3.1数据库,纳入2008-2022年首次入住ICU且符合Sepsis-3.0诊断标准的成人脓毒症患者。通过多重插补法处理缺失数据,限制性立方样条(RCS)模型分析入住ICU第1天的液体蓄积指数与30 d病死率之间的非线性关联; 多因素COX回归进行敏感性分析。倾向性评分匹配(PSM)方法评估不同液体蓄积水平患者的30 d病死率及严重AKI发生风险。结果 共纳入1 877例脓毒症患者,RCS分析显示,入住ICU第1天液体蓄积指数与患者30 d病死率呈"U"形非线性关联,拐点分别为0.51和0.70。将患者分为三组:低液体蓄积组(<0.51,n=535)、中液体蓄积组(0.51~0.70,n=319)和高液体蓄积组(>0.70,n=1 023)。高液体蓄积组患者疾病严重程度较高,序贯器官衰竭评估(SOFA)评分及血乳酸水平升高,严重AKI发生率增加,血管活性药物及连续性肾脏替代治疗应用比例更高(均P<0.05)。Kaplan-Meier生存分析显示中液体蓄积组患者30 d生存率最高。PSM匹配后,中液体蓄积组患者30 d病死率及严重AKI发生风险仍低于低+高液体蓄积组(均P<0.05)。结论 脓毒症患者入住ICU第1天的液体蓄积指数与30 d病死率呈"U"型关联,中液液体蓄积组患者30 d病死率和严重AKI发生风险较低。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To explore the impact of fluid accumulation index (FAI) on the first day of ICU admission on the prognosis and risk of severe acute kidney injury (AKI) in the patients with sepsis. METHODS The adult patients with sepsis who met Sepsis-3 criteria and were admitted to the ICU for the first time between 2008 and 2022 were enrolled in the study based on the MIMIC-IV (version 3.1) database. The missing data were handled by using multiple imputations. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were applied to examine the potential non-linear association between the first-day FAI and the 30-day mortality rate. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were employed to analyze the sensitivity. The 30-day mortality rates and the risk of severe AKI in the patients with different levels of fluid accumulation were assessed by means of propensity score matching (PSM). RESULTS Totally 1877 patients with sepsis were enrolled in the study. RCS analysis demonstrated a U-shaped non-linear association between the first-day FAI and the 30-day mortality rate, with the inflection points at 0.51 and 0.70, respectively. The patients were categorized into three groups: the low FAI group (<0.51, n=535), the intermediate FAI group (0.51 to 0.70, n=319), and the high FAI group (>0.70, n=1023). The patients of the high FAI group exhibited higher severity of disease, higher score of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), higher level of blood lactic acid, higher incidence of severe AKI, and higher proportions of patients who were treated with vasoactive agents and continuous renal replacement therapy (all P<0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the 30-day survival rate was highest in the intermediate FAI group. After the PSM, the 30-day mortality rate and risk of severe AKI were lower in the intermediate FAI group than in the low, high FAI groups (all P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS The FAI on the first day of ICU admission demonstrates a "U"-shaped association with the 30-day mortality rate of the sepsis patients. The patients of the intermediate FAI group exhibit lower 30-day mortality rate and risk of severe AKI.

     

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