老年肺结核患者耐多药特征及其危险因素预测模型的构建与验证

Drug resistance of elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, risk factors for multi-drug resistance, construction and validation of prediction model

  • 摘要: 目的 分析老年肺结核患者耐药情况及耐多药的危险因素,构建老年肺结核患者耐多药的列线图预测模型并进行验证。方法 选取2024年1月-2025年5月长沙市中心医院收治的502例老年肺结核患者,根据药敏试验结果分为耐多药组(n=64)与全敏感组(n=350),单耐药、多耐药及广泛耐药患者(n=88)不纳入分析。采用多因素logistic逐步回归分析老年肺结核患者耐多药的危险因素; 构建列线图模型,并采用受试者工作特性(ROC)曲线评估其预测价值。结果 老年肺结核患者耐药率为30.28%(152/502),其中单耐药8.96%、多耐药5.98%、耐多药12.75%、广泛耐药2.59%。耐多药组年龄高于全敏感组,居住地(农村)、工人、糖尿病史、结核病接触史、复治、双肺受累肺野数≥3个、结核空洞、树芽征所占比例均大于全敏感组(P<0.05)。多因素分析显示,有糖尿病史(OR=2.109)、居住地(农村)(OR=1.883)、有结核病接触史(OR=2.065)、复治(OR=2.784)、结核空洞(OR=2.537)是患者耐多药的危险因素(P<0.05)。列线图模型的Brier指数为0.091,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验及校准曲线提示拟合良好,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.862(95%CI:0.811~0.913),灵敏度93.18%,特异度67.54%。结论 老年肺结核患者耐药率较高,糖尿病史、居住地(农村)、结核病接触史、复治及结核空洞是耐多药的主要危险因素,据此构建的列线图模型预测效能良好。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To investigate the drug resistance of elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, analyze the risk factors for multi-drug resistance, construct and validate the nomogram prediction model for the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. METHODS A total of 502 elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis who were treated in Changsha Central Hospital from Jan. 2024 to May 2025 were enrolled in the study and were divided into the multi-drug resistant group with 64 cases and the fully sensitive group with 350 cases according to the result of antimicrobial susceptibility testing. The patients who were one-drug resistant, multidrug-resistant or pandrug-resistant were excluded. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis was performed for the risk factors for the multi-drug resistance of the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. The nomogram model was established, and the predictive value of the model was evaluated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS Among the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, the drug resistance rate was 30.28%(152/502), the one-drug resistance rate was 8.96%, the multidrug-resistant rate was 5.98%, the multi-drug resistance rate was 12.75%, and the pandrug-resistant rate was 2.59%. The patients of the multi-drug resistant group were elder than those of the fully sensitive group. The proportions of patients who were rural areas, workers, had diabetes mellitus history, history of contact with tuberculosis, retreatment, no less than 3 lung fields involved in both lungs, tuberculosis cavity, and tree bud signs were higher in the multi-drug resistant group than in the fully sensitive group (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that the diabetes mellitus history(OR=2.109), residence place (rural area)(OR=1.883), history of contact with tuberculosis(OR=2.065), retreatment (OR=2.784) and tuberculosis cavity (OR=2.537) were the risk factors for the multi-drug resistance(P<0.05). The Brier index of the nomogram model was 0.091. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves demonstrated a good fit; the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.862(95%CI:0.811 to 0.913), with the sensitivity 93.18%, the specificity 67.54%. CONCLUSIONS The drug resistance rate of the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis is high. The diabetes mellitus history, residence place (rural area), history of contact with tuberculosis, retreatment and tuberculosis cavity are the major risk factors for the multi-drug resistance. The nomogram model that is established based on the above factors exhibits favorable predictive efficiency.

     

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