2024-2025年南通某医院流感流行特征及其与气象因素的相关性

Epidemiological characteristics of influenza in a hospital of Nantong from 2024 to 2025 and association with meteorological factors

  • 摘要: 目的 分析2024-2025年南通某医院甲型、乙型流感病毒(FluA、FluB)的流行特征,为流感防控和医院感染管理提供依据。方法 收集2024年1月-2025年12月南通大学附属医院流感病毒核酸检测数据,分析流感流行的季节规律、人群易感性、临床特征及气象相关因素。结果 2024-2025年,FluA阳性率从7.67%升至12.79%(χ2=12.703,P<0.001),FluB阳性率从3.39%降至0.13%(χ2=9.236,P=0.012),形成FluA主导的流行格局。FluA和FluB均在冬季高发,FluA在不同季节间的阳性率差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。2025年FluA在幼儿、儿童和中青年组中较高,老年组较低(χ2=132.337,P<0.001); 2024年FluB感染主要集中在学龄前儿童(13.11%)和青年组(10.49%)。FluA易并发肺炎,患者多就诊于急诊内科、呼吸科等,FluB以发热、上呼吸道感染为主要表现,患者多就诊于发热门诊。FluA、FluB阳性率与温度呈显著负相关(均P<0.001),与降雨量呈中等负相关(均P<0.05),与PM2.5浓度呈正相关(均P<0.05)。结论 2024-2025年FluA为主要流行株,冬季高发、易感人群为幼儿、儿童和中青年,临床病情相对较重。FluB呈低水平流行,多见于儿童和青年。低温、低降雨量和高PM2.5浓度是流感流行的关键驱动因素。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza A (FluA) and influenza B (FluB) in a hospital of Nantong from 2024 to 2025 so as to provide bases for prevention and control of influenza and health care-associated infections (HAIs) management. METHODS The data regarding the nucleic acid tests for influenza viruses were collected from The Affiliate Hospital of Nantong University from Jan. 2024 to Dec. 2025. The seasonal prevalence, vulnerable populations, clinical characteristics and meteorological factors were observed. RESULTS From 2024 to 2025, the positive rate of FluA increased from 7.67% to 12.79%(χ2=12.703,P<0.001), and the positive rate of FluB decreased from 3.39% to 0.13%(χ2=9.236,P=0.012),exhibiting a prevalence pattern dominated by FluA. Both FluA and FluB were highly prevalent in winter. There was significant difference in the positive rate of FluA among the seasons (all P<0.05). In 2025, the prevalence rate of FluA was high among the infants, children, young and middle-aged populations, while it was low among the elderly population (χ2=132.337,P<0.001). In 2024, the prevalence rate of FluB infection was 13.11% among the preschool children and 10.49% among the young population. FluA was more likely to be complicated with pneumonia, and the patients predominantly presented to the emergency internal medicine department and respiratory medicine department; fever and upper respiratory tract infections were the primary manifestations of the patients with FluB, and the patients mainly presented to fever clinic. The positive rates of FluA and FluB were negatively correlated with the temperature (all P<0.001), intermediately negative correlation with precipitation (allP<0.05), and positively correlated with PM2.5 concentration (all P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS FluA is predominant strain prevalent from 2024 to 2025, with the peak in winter; the infants, children, and young middle-aged are the susceptible populations and have more severe illness conditions. FluB is less prevalent and is more common among the children and young population. The low temperature, low precipitation and high concentration of PM2.5 are the key driving factors for the flu epidemic.

     

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