基于熵权-TOPSIS与中断时间序列的ICU抗菌药物管理与院感防控效果评价

Evaluation of ICU antimicrobial agents management and health care-associated infection prevention and control based on entropy weight-TOPSIS and interrupted time series

  • 摘要: 目的 系统评价DRG付费改革单独干预及DRG联合抗菌药物科学化管理(AMS)双重干预对ICU抗菌药物管理与院感防控效果的影响,为ICU医疗质量精细化管理与干预策略优化提供实证依据。方法 收集2021年1月-2025年12月苏州大学附属常熟医院ICU共60个月度医疗质量监测数据,按干预措施分为基线期、DRG实施期、双重干预期、延续观察期。采用Kruskal-WallisH检验与Dunn检验比较各阶段指标差异; 经共线性筛选用熵权-TOPSIS法构建综合得分,纳入疫情协变量构建分段中断时间序列模型,量化干预即时效应与长期变化趋势。结果 病例组合指数(CMI)、例均耗材费、抗菌药物使用强度、多重耐药菌感染发生率、药品不良反应(ADR)上报率、病原学送检率在四阶段间存在统计学差异(P<0.05)。熵权法显示,ADR上报率(27.69%)与抗菌药物使用率(21.58%)为综合评价核心指标; TOPSIS综合得分呈基线小幅波动、DRG实施阶段回落、双重干预短期抬升、随访阶段回落的变化特征。中断时间序列分析显示,单纯DRG干预对综合质量的即时水平与长期趋势均无影响; 双重干预可显著抬升综合得分(β=0.149,P=0.001),干预后得分斜率负值变化未达统计学意义(β=-0.006,P=0.051)。结论 DRG联合AMS双重干预能够短期提升ICU抗菌药物管理与院感防控的综合成效,但效果缺乏长效性,单纯DRG改革对综合质量提升作用有限,需建立协同化干预与长效化维持的管理体系,推动质量持续改进。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To systematically evaluate the effects of single intervention of DRG payment reform and dual intervention of DRG combined with antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) on ICU antimicrobial agents management and health care-associated infections (HAIs) prevention and control so as to provide solid evidence for delicacy management of medical quality and optimization of interventional strategies. METHODS The data regarding the medical quality monitoring of the ICUs of Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University for 60 months were collected from Jan. 2021 to Dec. 2025 and were divided into the baseline period, DRG implementation period, dual intervention period and follow-up observation period. The differences in the indicators were observed and compared by means of Kruskal-WallisH test and Dunn test. After collinearity screening, the entropy weight-TOPSIS method was employed to construct a comprehensive score. A segmented interrupted time series model incorporating the pandemic covariate was established to quantify the immediate effects of the interventions and long-term variation trends. RESULTS There were significant differences in case-mix index (CMI), average consumable cost per case, antimicrobial use density (AUD), incidence of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) infections, reporting rate of adverse drug reactions (ADR), and etiological submission rate among the four time periods (P<0.05). The entropy weight method demonstrated that the reporting rate of ADR (27.69%) and the utilization rate of antibiotics (21.58%) were the core indicators for comprehensive evaluation. The TOPSIS comprehensive score exhibited a pattern of minor fluctuation during baseline period, followed by a decline during the DRG implementation period, a short-term rise during the dual intervention period, and a subsequent decline during the follow-up period. The interrupted time series analysis showed that the single DRG intervention had the impact on neither the immediate level nor the long-term trend of the comprehensive quality; the dual intervention could remarkably raise the comprehensive score (β=0.149,P=0.001), and the change of negative slope did not reached statistical significance after the intervention(β=-0.006,P=0.051). CONCLUSIONS The dual intervention of DRG combined with AMS can raise the short-term comprehensive effectiveness in antimicrobial management and HAIs prevention and control, but the effect lacks long-term sustainability. The single DRG reform has a limited effect on improving the comprehensive quality. It is necessary to establish a management system featuring collaborative intervention and long-term maintenance so as to promote continuous quality improvement.

     

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