慢性HBV感染并发慢加急性肝衰竭高危因素及三种预后评分模型的应用价值

High risk factors for acute on chronic liver failure in patients with chronic HBV infection and application value of three prognostic scoring models

  • 摘要: 目的 观察慢性乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染患者慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)发病高危因素,并分析三种预后评分模型对其预后评估价值。方法 选取温州市中医院100例慢性HBV感染合并ACLF患者为研究组,并取同期100例慢性HBV感染患者纳入对照组,比较两组临床资料,进行影响因素分析,并以受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na与iMELD评分对慢性HBV感染合并ACLF患者预后评估价值。结果 研究组与对照组在饮酒史、用药史(抗病毒药物、肝毒性药物)、外科手术史、病毒重叠感染情况、是否细菌感染、是否为高PCR-HBV DNA定量等因素上比较,有统计学差异(P<0.05);Logistic多因素分析显示,饮酒史、肝毒性药物、外科手术史、病毒重叠感染、细菌感染、高PCR-HBV DNA定量为慢性HBV感染患者ACLF发病独立高危因素(P<0.05),抗病毒药物为独立保护因素(P<0.05);生存组MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na评分低于病死组(P<0.05);MELD评估患者预后敏感度62.3%,特异度86.4%,iMELD敏感度67.4%,特异度80.8%,MELD-Na敏感度65.4%,特异度83.6%。结论 慢性HBV感染患者ACLF发病高危因素包括饮酒史、肝毒性药物、外科手术史、病毒重叠感染、细菌感染以及高PCR-HBV DNA定量,临床可针对这些因素采取有效预防对策,MELD、iMELD、MELD-Na评分模型对患者预后均有较高评估价值。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To observe the high risk factors for acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and analyze the values of three prognostic scoring models. METHODS Totally 100 chronic HBV infection patients complicated with ACLF who were treated in Wenzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were assigned as the study group, meanwhile, 100 patients with chronic HBV infection were set as the control group. The clinical data were compared between the two groups, the influencing factors were analyzed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for the values of model for end stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na and iMELD scores in assessment of prognosis. RESULTS There were significant differences in history of drinking, history of medication (antiviral drugs, hepatotoxic drugs), history of surgery, prevalence of viral overlap infection, bacterial infection and high PCR-HBV DNA quantification between the study group and the control group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the history of drinking, hepatotoxic drugs, history of surgery, viral overlap infection, bacterial infection and high PCR-HBV DNA quantification were the independent high risk factors for ACLF in the patients with chronic HBV infection (P<0.05), and the antiviral drug was the independent protective factor (P<0.05). The MELD, iMELD and MELD-Na scores of the survival group were significantly lower than those of the death group (P<0.05). The sensitivity of MELD was 62.3% in assessment of prognosis, iMELD 67.4%, MELD-Na 65.4%; the specificity of MELD was 86.4% in assessment of prognosis, iMELD 80.8%, MELD-Na 83.6%. CONCLUSION The high risk factors for ACLF in the patients with chronic HBV infection include the history of drinking, hepatotoxic drugs, history of surgery, viral overlap infection, bacterial infection and high PCR-HBV DNA quantification. It is necessary for the hospital to take targeted and effective prevention countermeasures. The MELD, iMELD and MELD-Na scoring models have high values in assessment of the prognosis.

     

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