肝癌切除术后感染性并发症的危险因素及其预测模型的建立

Risk factors of infectious complications after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma and the construction of its predictive model

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨肝癌肝切除术后感染性并发症的危险因素及预测模型的建立。方法 回顾性选取2015年1月-2021年10月新疆医科大学第一附属医院收治的148例肝癌肝切除术患者作为研究对象,依据术后是否出现感染性并发症分为感染组(n=26)和非感染组(n=122),分析感染组患者病原菌,并比较两组年龄、手术时间、血清白蛋白(Alb)等临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析感染性并发症发生的危险因素,建立风险预测模型,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线检测该模型对感染性并发症发生的预测效能。结果 26例肝癌肝切除术后感染患者共培养分离出45株病原菌,其中革兰阴性菌26株占57.78%,以大肠埃希菌和肺炎克雷伯菌为主; 革兰阳性菌18株占40.00%,以肺炎链球菌为主,真菌1株占2.22%; Logistic回归分析结果显示,合并糖尿病、Alb<35 g/L和腹腔引流管留置时间≥7 d是肝癌肝切除术患者发生感染性并发症的危险因素; 建立风险预测模型的模型表达式为:P=1/1+e(-4.222+1.062×(合并糖尿病)+1.261×(Alb<35 g/L)+0.956×(腹腔引流管留置时间≥7 d),Hosmer-Lemeshow检验χ2=3.204,P=0.921,模型预测感染性并发症的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.767,P<0.001,具有良好的拟合度和预测效能。结论 合并糖尿病、Alb水平<35 g/L和腹腔引流管留置时间≥7 d是肝癌肝切除术患者感染性并发症的危险因素,经Logistic回归模型建立的风险预测模型能较好地预测患者感染性并发症的发生风险,临床应针对以上危险因素制定针对性干预措施,以预防术后感染的发生。

     

    Abstract: OBJECTIVE To investigate the risk factors of infectious complications after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma and the construction of a predictive model. METHODS A total of 148 patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University for hepatic resection of hepatocellular carcinoma between Jan.2015 and Oct.2021 were retrospectively selected as the study subjects, and were divided into infection group (n=26) and non-infection group (n=122) according to presence or absence of postoperative infectious complications.The pathogenic bacteria of patients in the infection group were analyzed, the clinical data including age, operation time, serum albumin (Alb) were compared between the two groups.The risk factors for the occurrence of infectious complications were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression, the risk prediction model was established, and the efficiency of the model in predicting the occurrence of infectious complications was tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS A total of 45 strains of pathogens were cultured and isolated from 26 patients with post-hepatectomy infections for hepatocellular carcinoma, of which 26 strains of Gram-negative bacteria accounted for 57.79%, mainly Escherichia coli (28.54%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (24.44%); 18 strains of Gram-positive bacteria accounted for 40.00%, mainly Streptococcus pneumoniae; and 1 strains of fungi accounted for 2.22%.Logistic regression analysis showed that combined diabetes mellitus, Alb <35 g/L and indwelling time of abdominal drainage tube ≥7 d were risk factors for infectious complications in patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.The model expression of the risk prediction model was as follow: P=1/1+e(-4.222+1.062×(diabetes mellitus)+1.261×(Alb <35 g/L)+0.956×(indwelling time of abdominal drainage tube ≥7 d), Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2=3.204, P=0.921.The area under the curve (AUC) of the model for predicting infectious complications was 0.767 (P<0.001), showing good fit and predictive efficiency. CONCLUSION Combined diabetes mellitus, Alb<35 g/L and indwelling time of abdominal drainage tube ≥7 d were risk factors for infectious complications in patients undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma.The risk prediction model established based on the Logistic regression model could better predict the risk of infectious complications in patients, and targeted interventions should be formulated clinically based on the above risk factors to prevent the occurrence of postoperative infection.

     

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